I don’t make mistakes. I make prophecies which immediately turn out to be wrong
Murray Walker
Trying to map out any knockout competition from beginning to end is like trying to make a jigsaw when you don’t know what the finished picture should look like. When predicting the recent World Snooker Championship (for those worried about the future of hurling, check out snooker; now that is what a sport on its knees looks like), any pundit who didn’t tip Ronnie O’Sullivan would have looked stupid. Yet they would have been the right ones.
Still, the logic employed in last year’s debacle – that it’s useful to have your thoughts down on figurative paper so you can’t be accused of rewriting history – still applies. And aprés Boyo Redneckus, stupid things can be justified on the basis that they were ‘for the craic’. So without further ado, let’s get craicing.
Every county has plenty of variables attached to their pre-Championship case file, and none more so than Cork. The nuclear winter from which they have just emerged would have any other county on their knees, but no county can be more terrifying on the rebound than Cork. The vast resources they can deploy and the overweening arrogance that generates mean that they can go from a complete shambles to All-Ireland champions in the space of a few months, like they did in 1999. As with the aforementioned Ronnie O’Sullivan scenario though, you have to run with the idea that the form book dictates that Cork are in no position to make a sustained challenge. When beaten by Waterford in the last round of this year’s League, Denis Walsh retreated behind the lame excuse that Cork had not had enough games – lame because they had played four games with the complete panel, one fewer than they would have had in recent League campaigns. Some times you’ve gotta accept you’re not good enough, and with them haemorrhaging the players that they went to war for at an alarming rate, that looks the case for Cork this year.
It doesn’t help that their first match of the campaign is against the No 1 ranked challenger to Kilkenny’s crown. Having gone toe-to-toe with the Cats for 90 minutes in that ridiculously thrilling League final, Tipperary should be feeling optimistic about their prospects. Usually at this juncture it would be traditional to inject a note of caution in to such optimism, that as a county that routinely congratulates itself on how doughty they are because they’ve been playing hurling since the days of Fionn Mac Cumhaill, Tipp will actually feel worse for the manner of their defeat because they went so near to puncturing Kilkenny’s veneer of invincibility but only ended up enhancing it. This would be superficially comforting, but from the perspective of the Munster championship it would be delusional. Tipperary looked awesome, and once the bitter taste of defeat has faded into memory Liam Sheedy won’t be slow in telling that to himself and the panel. Cork won’t be able to live with them.
Awaiting them in the semi-final are Clare. Last year’s surprise Championship package are this year’s surprise League package. They were staggeringly awful, relegated with a full round of games to go. Mike McNamara’s attack on the prospect of playing in Division 2 next year, quite apart from being grossly disrespectful to counties labouring away in the dungeons of hurling, was a pathetically transparent attempt to deflect attention away from their own failings. God be with the good old days when counties like Dublin and Waterford – yes, I can recall those days – would dutifully see-saw up and down the ranks and leave the permanent places for their betters. It’s understandable that the little matter of those McCarthy Cup’s would go to Clare heads, but with veterans of those days also dropping like flies, such attitudes are going to only make recovery harder. Last year I came not to praise Clare but to bury them, and they ended up burying Justin McCarthy. If at first you don’t succeed . . . Tipp to hammer Clare out the gate.
Which leaves the other half of the draw, the teams beaten in last year’s Munster championship by the team of whom I have just been so dismissive. Limerick will doubtless be telling themselves that the last team in their first year of being managed by Justin McCarthy, in spite of a modest League campaign, didn’t do too badly. And certainly Justin has a track record of giving teams an almighty early boost. Still, every person with an opinion on hurling in 2002 was in agreement that Waterford were a team of underachievers. The days of their hat-trick of Under-21 All-Ireland’s have faded sufficiently far into the distance that no one is suggesting that of Limerick. Indeed, reaching the All-Ireland final two years ago was seen as spectacular overachievement. There’s no evidence of spectacular improvement in the League and with Waterford’s track record we should be confident of victory.
Waterford’s recent track record, i.e. the League, is spotty, to say the least. We beat the teams everyone else beat (Clare and Cork), beat / gave a good effort against the teams that beat everyone else (Kilkenny and Tipperary) and got beat by all the teams in the middle (Galway, Limerick and Dublin). Good luck trying to make sense of that mess. What makes it easier is the presence of Tipperary. If they really are as good as they look then we really shouldn’t have a hope against them in the Munster final. There, that’s them well and truly cursed. Roll on the summer!